When does cyr go live next?

Step 1 — The Raw Data

We pulled 2,422 exact stream start timestamps from SullyGnome (Jan 2017 – May 2026). Each one is the moment cyr's Twitch broadcast actually went live.

Step 2 — Gap Distribution (end-to-start)

For every consecutive pair of streams we measure the gap from when the previous stream ended to when the next one started. This is more meaningful than start-to-start because it measures actual rest time — not contaminated by how long each session ran.

Step 3 — Where We Are Right Now

The last stream ended May 26 at 02:45 UTC. The elapsed bar above shows how far into the end-to-start gap distribution we currently sit. The percentile tells you what fraction of historical gaps ended before this point — updated live every minute.

Step 4 — Conditional vs Unconditional Probability

The raw survival function gives the probability of a stream within any future window from the last stream end. Once time has elapsed without a stream, we condition on having already survived that long:

The chips and metric cards always show this conditional probability, updated live from your current elapsed time.

Step 5 — The Point Estimate

Median end-to-start gap added to last stream end gives the point estimate. Computed live — see the Answer panel above.

Step 6 — The Signal Score (55/100)

Signal is a weighted ensemble of three inputs blended into a 0–100 composite:

Title/game score is depressed (46) because Death Stranding is on pause and the May 24 session was Just Chatting — a break signal rather than arc continuation.